The Miami Dolphins face a significant challenge to secure a playoff spot after a challenging Week 15. To return to the postseason after missing out last year, the Dolphins must win their final four games. Their upcoming schedule includes crucial matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers on December 18, followed by home games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, culminating in a decisive clash against the New England Patriots on the weekend of January 4-5.
Achieving a final record of 10-7 would be a remarkable feat, marking an eight-game winning streak. However, any loss in the remaining games will eliminate the Dolphins from playoff contention. Their situation could become dire as early as Monday evening if they do not secure a victory against the Steelers.
Entering the matchup against Pittsburgh, the Dolphins sit in 10th place in the AFC standings. To qualify for the playoffs, they must leapfrog three teams to reach the coveted seventh spot. Unfortunately, five teams have already secured positions that the Dolphins cannot surpass due to superior records or tiebreakers. These teams include the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers, along with the AFC North champions, who automatically qualify for the playoffs.
The Dolphins find themselves in a race against four teams ahead of them: the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Baltimore Ravens. However, the Ravens do not impact the Dolphins’ playoff hopes directly. A win over Pittsburgh would leave the Steelers at 7-7, matching Baltimore’s record. Since the two teams face off in Week 18, the loser will end with at least eight losses, thereby allowing a Miami team that finishes at 10-7 to surpass them.
The Dolphins’ path to the playoffs hinges on surpassing the Bills, Texans, and Colts. The challenge intensifies as the Bills currently hold a 10-4 record. For Miami to catch them, Buffalo must lose all three of their remaining games, which include contests against the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets.
Meanwhile, the Texans, at 9-5, must also lose their final three games for Miami to have a chance. Houston’s schedule includes a match against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost eight consecutive games. The Colts, currently 8-6, have tough games ahead against the San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston. The Dolphins need Indianapolis to lose at least two of those contests, as the Colts would hold a tiebreaker advantage if both teams finish at 10-7.
To sum up, for the Dolphins to have a shot at the playoffs, they must accomplish two critical objectives:
– Miami must win all four remaining games (at PIT, CIN, TB, at NE).
– Two of the following scenarios must occur:
– Buffalo loses its final three games (at CLE, PHI, NYJ).
– Houston loses its final three games (vs LV, at LAC, vs IND).
– Indianapolis loses at least two of its final three games (vs SF, vs JAX, at HOU).
As the Dolphins head into this critical stretch, the pathway to the playoffs is narrow but not entirely out of reach. Their performance in the coming weeks will determine their fate in the 2023 season.
