UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach a new all-time high in 2026, breaking its traditional four-year cycle, according to a groundbreaking analysis from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. In a note released just yesterday, Hougan confirmed that weakening forces behind Bitcoin’s historical cycles are shifting, setting the stage for remarkable growth.
This forecast arrives amid a transformative wave of pro-crypto regulations and heightened institutional investment. Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are expected to begin allocating significant capital into Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) throughout 2026. Just this month, Bank of America allowed its financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially unlocking a portion of its staggering $3.5 trillion in client assets to cryptocurrency.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a predictable four-year cycle, marked by three years of substantial gains followed by a correction year. However, 2026, typically a pullback year, is now anticipated to defy tradition. Hougan argues that the diminishing effects of Bitcoin halving events, interest rate cycles, and prior market booms and busts are leading to a new structural dynamic. “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan stated.
The momentum for Bitcoin is further bolstered by a growing macro demand for alternative stores of value amid rising public debt and enhanced regulatory clarity. The asset manager Grayscale supports this optimistic outlook, projecting that Bitcoin will achieve unprecedented records in the first half of 2026.
In addition to price predictions, Bitwise’s analysis indicates a notable decline in Bitcoin’s volatility. The firm expects BTC’s price changes to be less volatile than tech giant Nvidia throughout 2025, a trend that is set to continue into the new year. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities is expected to drop, allowing it to thrive independently even when stock markets face challenges.
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin maintained a strong correlation with the NASDAQ-100 index, but recent data shows that this relationship only held during periods of price declines. As regulatory advancements unfold, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may advance even amidst broader market uncertainties.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, having dipped nearly 1% at the time of this report. Investors and crypto enthusiasts are advised to keep a close watch on these developments, as the landscape for cryptocurrency is rapidly evolving.
What’s next? Analysts predict that 2026 will usher in a new era for Bitcoin, driven by institutional adoption and a favorable macroeconomic environment. With interest rates expected to remain conducive to investment, the stage is set for Bitcoin to redefine its historical patterns and reach unprecedented heights. Stay tuned for the latest updates as this story develops.
