The New Orleans Saints are favored by 6.5 points against the Tennessee Titans in their upcoming matchup scheduled for December 31, 2023. This analysis suggests that the Saints’ defensive prowess and recent offensive improvements may provide significant betting value in this game.
A closer examination of the teams indicates that the Saints have excelled defensively, ranking as one of the top units in the league despite being overlooked in the betting markets. According to data from Timo Riske and insights from PFF, the Saints’ defense has been particularly effective, leading the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play during the second half of the season. This defensive strength is crucial as they prepare to face a Titans team struggling on both offense and defense.
The Saints’ defense ranks first in EPA allowed per rush and third in EPA per dropback. They have consistently demonstrated a high success rate against the pass, allowing the third-fewest yards per dropback, which indicates their effectiveness is due to overall performance rather than relying on turnovers. This trend is pivotal as the Saints gear up to challenge Titans quarterback Cam Ward, who has faced difficulties under pressure.
On the offensive side, the Saints have shown signs of improvement, particularly with quarterback Tyler Shough. Over the past month, Shough has garnered the sixth-best PFF grade among quarterbacks, advancing the Saints closer to average in key metrics like EPA and success rate. While some analysts argue that his recent success may stem from favorable matchups, the Titans’ defense presents another opportunity for Shough to thrive. The Titans rank among the bottom teams in yards per dropback and EPA allowed, further enhancing the Saints’ chances.
One significant aspect of the Saints’ evolving strategy is their increased blitz rate. Over the last month, they have blitzed at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which could pose challenges for Ward, who has struggled against blitzing defenses. His performance in obvious passing situations has been particularly troubling, losing nearly 0.2 points per dropback. With the Saints expected to stifle the Titans’ running game, Ward may find himself in more challenging passing scenarios.
Given these dynamics, the matchup appears to favor the Saints. The combination of their defensive capabilities and Shough’s recent form suggests that they can manage a substantial margin of victory. If the Saints can establish an early lead, it could exacerbate the Titans’ offensive struggles, compounding their difficulties and enhancing the Saints’ chances of covering the spread.
As the game approaches, bettors should consider the Saints not just as a team on the rise but also as a formidable opponent for the Titans. The underlying data supports the notion that the Saints are undervalued in the betting market, making them an attractive option for those looking to capitalize on this Week 17 matchup.
