The emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, notably Ozempic, is significantly altering food purchasing behaviors among American consumers. A recent study conducted by researchers at Cornell University reveals how these medications are reshaping dietary habits and spending patterns in grocery stores and restaurants.
Using transaction records from Numerator, which monitors grocery and restaurant purchases for approximately 150,000 US households, researchers tracked food spending before and after individuals began using GLP-1 medications. The study assessed whether household members were using these weight-loss drugs, when they started, and if they had discontinued use.
Findings indicate that within six months of beginning treatment with a GLP-1 drug, households reduced their grocery spending by an average of 5.3%. High-income shoppers exhibited an even steeper decline, with spending down by 8%. Additionally, fast-food establishments, coffee shops, and specialized eateries experienced a similar downturn, with an average drop of about 8% in sales.
Sylvia Hristakeva, from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, highlighted the significant changes in food purchasing following the adoption of GLP-1 medications. “After discontinuation, the effects become smaller and harder to distinguish from pre-adoption spending patterns,” she noted.
The decline in grocery spending was not uniform across all categories. Sales of ultra-processed and calorie-dense foods suffered the most, with purchases of sweets and savory snacks dropping by around 10%. Interestingly, staples such as eggs and meat also saw reduced sales. Conversely, certain products experienced increased popularity, with yogurt seeing the most notable rise in sales. Fresh fruits, nutritional bars, and meat-based snacks also gained traction among consumers.
“The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases,” Hristakeva explained. “Only a small number of categories show increases, and those increases are modest relative to the overall decline.”
As the use of GLP-1 medications continues to grow, the percentage of US households with at least one member on these drugs increased from 11% in late 2023 to over 16% by mid-2024. The study also found that around a third of participants discontinued their medication during the study period, which was reflected in their purchasing habits. These individuals reverted to previous shopping behaviors, characterized by increased purchases of less healthy food options.
Looking ahead, the researchers project that the number of Americans using GLP-1 drugs could reach 24 million by 2035. This anticipated rise in demand is prompting food manufacturers to rethink their marketing strategies. As noted by Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson, “These medications are both a risk and opportunity for the food industry. Clearly, we believe this is going to be a time of disruption.”
According to Mattson research, individuals using GLP-1 drugs are consuming 66% less soda and alcohol. Additionally, 93% report eating smaller meals, while more than 60% indicate that they think about food less frequently. In response to this shift, food giant Conagra Brands has started labeling its Healthy Choice products as “GLP-1 Friendly,” despite no changes to the meals themselves.
The study published in the Journal of Marketing Research underscores the importance of understanding the implications of these demand shifts for the food market. The researchers caution that while they could not definitively attribute the decline in food spending solely to GLP-1 drugs, the correlation between appetite suppression and changes in consumer habits is significant.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley express optimism regarding the future of restaurants and specialty food outlets. They believe that dining experiences extend beyond basic needs and that many chains will adapt to meet evolving consumer preferences. “Restaurants are never just about the food,” stated Brian Harbour, who leads coverage of US restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley. “They sell convenience, in the case of limited service, or an experience, in the case of full service. But they could face declining sales in the medium term.”
As the food industry navigates this transformative period, the emphasis on adjusting product offerings and marketing strategies to appeal to the growing population of GLP-1 users is likely to intensify. Understanding these shifts is crucial for assessing the evolving landscape of food markets and consumer spending.
