Vice President J.D. Vance has maintained a slight edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a newly released hypothetical poll regarding the 2028 presidential race. Conducted by Emerson College on October 13-14, 2023, the survey indicates that 46 percent of respondents would support Vance, compared to 45 percent for Newsom, with 10 percent remaining undecided.
Both political figures have yet to formally declare their candidacies for the presidency but are regarded as frontrunners for their respective parties. This latest polling data follows a similar trend observed in previous surveys, with Vance only slightly ahead of Newsom by less than a point in late August and a 3 percent lead in July.
The findings underscore a polarized electorate, as noted by Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. He stated, “The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup… suggest a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion.”
Kimball highlighted the ongoing debate over “threats to democracy” and its potential impact on voter sentiment. He emphasized that economic issues remain a significant concern for voters, particularly among women and younger demographics, who perceive the economy as moving in the wrong direction.
Gavin Newsom has been actively working to raise his national profile this year, positioning himself as a prominent voice against former President Donald Trump. His approach on social media has drawn attention, leading Vance to criticize Newsom’s attempts to “mimic” Trump during an appearance on “The Will Cain Show” in August.
In addition to their political rivalry, both leaders are engaged in redistricting battles that could shape their party’s future in Congress. Newsom is advocating for a new district map in California, which includes Proposition 50. This proposal aims to flip five congressional seats from Republican to Democratic control and will be on the ballot for voters on November 4, 2023. The initiative has received mixed reviews from the California electorate.
Similarly, Vance has been active in Indiana, pushing for redistricting efforts that would increase Republican representation. His efforts have faced scrutiny, with Indiana Governor Mike Braun expressing concerns about the initiative’s viability in the state Senate.
The dynamic between Vance and Newsom escalated in June, particularly after Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles to address protests related to immigration raids. The two exchanged critical remarks on social media, highlighting their contrasting political philosophies.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Both Vance’s and Newsom’s offices have not yet responded to requests for comments regarding the poll results.
As the 2028 presidential race begins to take shape, the ongoing developments between these two prominent figures will be closely watched, with potential implications for their parties and the broader political landscape in the coming years.
