Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain as it approaches 2026, with analysts at Galaxy Digital highlighting significant macroeconomic and market risks. According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, the options market signals and decreasing volatility complicate predictions for the cryptocurrency in the coming year. Despite these challenges, the firm maintains a bullish long-term outlook, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
Galaxy Research, the research division of Galaxy Digital, notes that overlapping macroeconomic factors contribute to the unpredictable nature of Bitcoin’s performance. Thorn stated that the options market’s current pricing trends suggest Bitcoin is evolving into a more macro-oriented asset rather than a high-growth investment. He emphasized that 2026 may prove to be one of the most challenging years for forecasting Bitcoin prices.
In a post on social media platform X, Thorn described the upcoming year as “too chaotic to predict,” citing a mix of political risks, macroeconomic uncertainty, and inconsistent momentum within the cryptocurrency market. He referenced the firm’s report from December 18, 2025, titled “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which outlines Galaxy’s expectations for the evolution of crypto markets and institutional adoption.
At the time, Thorn indicated that the broader cryptocurrency market was entrenched in a bear phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain sustained bullish momentum. He noted that until Bitcoin consistently trades above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, the risk of further decline remains significant.
The derivatives markets further illustrate this uncertainty. Thorn pointed out that Bitcoin options pricing currently reflects approximately equal probabilities for starkly different outcomes by mid-2026, with traders assigning similar odds to prices near $70,000 or $130,000. By year’s end, possibilities range from approximately $50,000 to $250,000. Such wide-ranging expectations signal that institutional investors are bracing for considerable price fluctuations rather than a definitive trend.
Despite the volatility, Thorn identified indications of structural change within the market. He noted that long-term Bitcoin volatility, which measures price fluctuations over time, has been on the decline. This shift is partially attributed to the rise of institutional strategies, such as options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which tend to stabilize extreme price movements.
Thorn also highlighted a shift in the options market’s pricing behavior, suggesting that downside protection is now more expensive than upside exposure. This trend is more characteristic of established macro assets, such as equities or commodities, than of high-growth markets like cryptocurrencies.
He posited that even if Bitcoin experiences a range-bound or “boring” 2026, it would not detract from its long-term viability. Thorn remains confident that institutional adoption and market maturation will persist. In its recent report, Galaxy indicated that a major asset-allocation platform could incorporate Bitcoin into standard model portfolios, embedding the cryptocurrency into default investment strategies rather than relying solely on discretionary trades. This integration is expected to drive consistent capital flows into Bitcoin, irrespective of market conditions.
Thorn believes that expanding institutional access, alongside potential easing of monetary policies and growing demand for alternatives to fiat currencies, could position Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement, akin to gold. Galaxy Digital’s bullish forecast for Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2027 reflects this long-term conviction.
As 2026 approaches, the cryptocurrency market faces a complex interplay of factors that could shape its trajectory. While immediate price movements remain uncertain, the ongoing evolution of institutional engagement may prove pivotal for Bitcoin’s future.
