Polling data indicates that Nate Morris, a candidate in the Republican primary for the Kentucky Senate seat, is experiencing a significant upward trend, positioning him as a formidable contender against established figures in the race. Recent surveys reveal that Morris, who is backed by prominent conservative voices, is closing in on his rivals while gaining traction among voters.
According to a memo from Tony Fabrizio, a respected pollster and advisor to former President Donald Trump, Morris is rapidly gaining favor. In a hypothetical three-way race, Daniel Cameron leads with 31%, followed by Andy Barr at 24%, and Morris at 21%. Notably, when focusing on voters who are familiar with all three candidates, Morris’s support rises to 28%, compared to Cameron’s 26% and Barr’s 25%. This shift suggests a tightening race as Morris becomes better known to the electorate.
The landscape of Kentucky politics is evolving, particularly as voters appear to be reassessing their options in light of recent events. Cameron, a former Kentucky Attorney General and McConnell ally, has enjoyed significant name recognition due to his previous roles and recent gubernatorial candidacy, where he was defeated by Democrat Andy Beshear. Despite this, the latest polling indicates that Cameron’s lead is diminishing, particularly as voters become aware that he lacks Trump’s endorsement.
Morris’s rise can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a strategic advertising campaign that aligns him closely with the MAGA movement while distancing him from the establishment. His campaign emphasizes critical issues such as an immigration moratorium and election integrity measures, including the proposed SAVE Act, which aims to implement voter ID requirements.
Additionally, Morris’s supporters include notable figures and organizations, such as Turning Point Action and the late Charlie Kirk, whose endorsement before his tragic death in 2025 has proven influential. According to polling data, when voters learn of Kirk’s backing, Morris’s support nearly doubles, highlighting the importance of endorsements in shaping public perception.
Despite Barr’s extensive experience as a Congressman and his initial strong positioning, his campaign has not demonstrated the same growth as Morris’s. Barr has invested heavily in his campaign, yet recent polling shows little movement in support, raising concerns among potential donors about the viability of his candidacy.
Morris’s financial advantage is noteworthy as he benefits from significant contributions, including a reported $10 million donation to his Super PAC—the largest disclosed contribution in the upcoming midterm cycle. This funding is expected to amplify his messaging and outreach efforts in the months leading up to the primary election.
As the primary election date approaches, Morris’s momentum highlights a shift in the Republican landscape in Kentucky. His ability to convert undecided voters and appeal to a broader base reflects a growing dissatisfaction with long-standing political figures and a desire for a new direction.
The polling, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, surveyed 800 likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky from January 27-29, 2026. The results underscore the dynamic nature of the race and the potential for significant changes as candidates continue to vie for the support of Kentucky’s Republican electorate.
