Medical experts are sounding alarms about a potentially severe flu season in the coming weeks, driven by the emergence of a new strain known as subclade K. Although the current flu season in many regions has been relatively mild, this new variant, which first appeared in Australia, threatens to change that trajectory.
According to the U.K.’s National Health Service, the new strain has led to the highest hospitalization rates for flu in that country for this time of year. Lisa Sollot, the respiratory disease program coordinator for the Virginia Department of Health, noted that subclade K has also been identified in Japan and the United States, raising concerns about its spread.
Current estimates indicate that the existing flu vaccine is only about 32-39% effective in preventing infection from this strain, although it remains significantly more effective in children, with an efficacy rate of 72-75%, as reported by researchers at the University of Virginia. This raises questions about the vaccine’s ability to protect against the intensifying outbreak.
Frederick G. Hayden, a professor at the University of Virginia’s School of Medicine and a member of the Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, co-authored an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association analyzing the latest data. He emphasized that the severity of this flu season is likely to mirror the previous one, which was designated as “severe” largely due to the number of pediatric deaths associated with the virus.
A report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on December 11 supports these concerns, indicating that the current influenza season is marked by high severity across all age groups. The CDC noted that this season has seen an exceptionally high number of pediatric deaths, primarily linked to the influenza A H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. Hayden remarked, “Unfortunately, we are seeing the circulation of a new variant of H3N2 virus for which our vaccines may be somewhat less effective. However, available vaccines will reduce the risk of serious illness and potentially the spread of this virus.”
With vaccination rates in Virginia hovering around 28% across all age groups, the situation appears precarious. Among children aged 5 to 17, the vaccination rate is notably lower, at 20.6%, while individuals aged 50 and older have the highest rate at 39.8%. This disparity raises concerns, especially in light of CDC data indicating that nearly 90% of children who died from the flu last season were not vaccinated, and about 50% of those fatalities occurred in children without any underlying health conditions.
Sollot highlighted the alarming nature of these statistics: “Those are really shocking statistics for the season. Everybody get vaccinated, wash your hands, and stay home when you’re sick.” The CDC continues to recommend influenza vaccination for everyone aged 6 months and older, with only rare exceptions.
As flu season progresses, public health officials urge individuals to remain vigilant. The emergence of subclade K, combined with low vaccination rates, could lead to a challenging season ahead.
