Health experts are predicting a challenging flu season this year, with infection rates beginning to rise in various regions across the United States. While current rates in Texas are classified as moderate, cities such as New York are already experiencing significant increases in cases attributed to a new influenza variant.
According to Dr. Catherine Troisi, a professor of epidemiology at UT Health Houston School of Public Health, three primary factors contribute to the anticipation of a severe flu season. The first is the prevalence of the H3N2 strain of the influenza A virus, known for causing more severe illness. Dr. Troisi explained, “This is a type of influenza A that causes more severe disease.”
Another concern is the emergence of a variant dubbed the “super flu,” scientifically referred to as subclade K. Dr. Troisi described a subclade as akin to “a family tree—viruses have family trees. This is like maybe your nieces and nephews. So it’s connected, but not quite the same.” The new subclade is particularly alarming as it appears that the population lacks immunity to it, leading to a higher likelihood of illness upon exposure. Dr. Troisi added, “Also, it seems to be spreading faster.” Fortunately, there is no current evidence suggesting that subclade K causes more severe disease than its parent strain, H3N2.
Vaccination rates are notably down this year, which raises further concerns about the flu season’s potential impact. Dr. Troisi highlighted early testing results from England, where subclade K first emerged earlier than in the U.S., indicating that the annual flu shot provides some protection. “The influenza vaccine is not the best vaccine we have. People can still get sick. What it does better is protect you against severe disease and hospitalization,” she stated. Importantly, she reassured individuals who have yet to receive their flu shot that “it is not too late.”
In Texas, flu infections are on the rise week by week, but Dr. Troisi noted that the situation has yet to escalate to the severity seen in other parts of the country. She anticipates that the number of influenza cases will likely increase as the holiday season approaches. Factors such as holiday travel and children returning home from school contribute to higher transmission rates, especially in colder climates where people congregate indoors.
Dr. Troisi also pointed out that while most cases currently involve H3N2, another strain, H1N1, is also circulating. The flu vaccine offers protection against H1N1, providing an additional layer of security for those who may be exposed.
As this flu season unfolds, health officials emphasize the importance of vaccination and remaining vigilant. By taking preventive measures, individuals can significantly mitigate their risk of severe illness.
