U.S. officials conducted a war game during former President Donald Trump‘s first term to evaluate the potential aftermath of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro‘s removal. According to a report by The New York Times, the unclassified exercise anticipated a violent power struggle among military factions, political groups, and armed guerrillas, which could lead to continued instability across Venezuela.
As the Trump administration escalates military operations in the region, these findings have resurfaced, indicating a shift in policy aimed at exerting direct pressure on Maduro to resign. Trump has labeled the Venezuelan leader as an “outlaw,” and recently suggested that a ground invasion is not off the table, citing Maduro’s involvement in drug trafficking. Since early September, U.S. forces have conducted over 20 strikes on vessels near Venezuela’s coast, which the administration claims were engaged in drug transport, resulting in the deaths of at least 80 people.
Concerns Over Instability and Internal Divisions
Analysts are drawing parallels between a potential transition in Venezuela and previous U.S.-backed interventions in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group expressed concern that the U.S. does not appear to have a comprehensive plan for what follows Maduro’s departure, stating that expectations of a smooth transition are “fantasy.”
Following a 2019 exercise, national security consultant Douglas Farah warned that any removal of Maduro through a coup, uprising, or foreign intervention would likely lead to “chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it.” In an interview, he emphasized that a sudden seismic shift in power would result in severe consequences, including a potential collapse of command structures within the military.
Recent assessments by retired Venezuelan officers have further underscored the likelihood of internal fragmentation rather than a unified resistance against potential U.S. actions. Former officer José Antonio Colina remarked in an interview with NTN24 that “Venezuelan soldiers will not sacrifice themselves for Nicolás Maduro,” suggesting that any military intervention could prompt a withdrawal of support from the armed forces. He characterized most governmental negotiations as tactics to “buy time.”
Operational Capacity and Readiness of Venezuelan Forces
Earlier reporting from the Miami Herald highlighted comments from exiled Venezuelan officers who characterized defending against a U.S. attack as “suicide.” They described an armed forces struggling with approximately one-third operational capacity, limited air readiness, and a communications system that has “practically collapsed.”
As tensions escalate, the implications of a potential military intervention remain uncertain. The U.S. administration’s approach to Venezuela continues to attract scrutiny, especially regarding the potential aftermath of Maduro’s fall and the risk of a protracted conflict in a country already grappling with severe social and economic challenges.
