Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season commenced with an exciting match where the Houston Texans narrowly defeated the Buffalo Bills 23-19 on November 22, 2025. As the league gears up for the remaining games, analysts have identified critical trends and potential sleeper players that could influence outcomes this weekend.
Seth Walder, an analytics writer, highlighted three statistical trends that might be pivotal. One significant focus is the Indianapolis Colts play-action strategy. The Colts utilize play-action on 33% of their dropbacks, the second-highest in the league. This tactic could prove effective against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have struggled against play-action plays, ranking last in EPA allowed per play-action play at 0.38.
The potential impact of the Colts’ passing game raises questions about whether the Chiefs can adapt. They currently rank 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, but their vulnerability against play-action could be a decisive factor in their performance.
Football fans are also keen to see how the Las Vegas Raiders will fare against Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL start. While the Raiders’ pass rush has been relatively modest, Sanders will face a significant challenge. During his college career, he experienced pressure 39.2% of the time, indicating he frequently created his own difficulties. The Raiders may not need to excel to disrupt him, as Sanders will likely encounter a more formidable NFL defense.
Another matchup to watch involves the Dallas Cowboys attempting to exploit the Philadelphia Eagles defense. The Cowboys have prioritized deep throws, with 31% of their routes being verticals this season. However, the Eagles have been effective at limiting explosive plays, allowing the lowest EPA per play (0.04) when opponents target vertical routes.
In the fantasy realm, writer Eric Moody identified five potential sleeper players worth considering. Among those is Tyjae Spears, a running back for the Tennessee Titans, who is currently rostered in just 36.2% of ESPN leagues. Spears has proven to be a reliable option in the passing game, averaging 10.1 fantasy points over his last five games. With injuries affecting the Titans’ wide receiver core, he may see increased opportunities in Week 12.
Another player to watch is Michael Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals, who is rostered in 32.4% of leagues. Wilson’s performance against the San Francisco 49ers, where he recorded 15 receptions for 185 yards, positions him as a key target following the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. due to an appendectomy.
Tight end AJ Barner from the Seattle Seahawks is also gaining attention after a strong showing against the Rams, where he recorded a career-high 11 targets and 17.1 fantasy points. His rising profile suggests he could be a valuable asset against the Titans in Week 12.
On the quarterback front, analysts sought insights from various NFL Nation reporters regarding several intriguing situations. The Seattle Seahawks are looking to improve after Sam Darnold faced challenges in a recent game against the Rams. Darnold acknowledged the need to better recognize coverage schemes and improve his decision-making under pressure.
Similarly, the Browns are optimistic about Sanders as he gets more practice time with the first team, allowing him to develop a game plan that plays to his strengths while addressing previous struggles against blitzes.
As the weekend unfolds, analysts are keenly observing key matchups, including Jalen Hurts of the Eagles against the Cowboys’ defensive strategies. Eberflus’ defense previously employed a zone-heavy approach that could challenge Hurts, who will need to adapt to create successful passing opportunities.
Lastly, betting analyst Pamela Maldonado recommended the Colts at +3.5 against the Chiefs. She noted the Colts’ ability to exploit the Chiefs’ weaknesses, particularly through their running game and play-action success, which could make for a competitive matchup.
With these insights and predictions, NFL fans have plenty to watch for as Week 12 unfolds, promising thrilling action and potential surprises on the field.
